Ever since the “warp speed” roll out of Covid vaccines in December 2020, Americans have constantly heard the refrain they were “safe and effective.” However, there is accumulating evidence that they are “neither safe, nor effective” in the aggregate.
One of the most direct metrics for evaluating the effectiveness of vaccines for combating the Covid virus, as well as variants such as Delta and Omicron, is the excess mortality rate. While there were mask mandates and lockdowns in 2020, vaccines were introduced on January 4, 2021. Thus, it is the one major new tool for fighting Covid that was introduced in 2021. It thus provides an excellent proxy variable for assessing effects on excess mortality.
The Centers for Disease Control explains the value of excess mortality rates when evaluating all-cause mortality. This is relevant because we want to take a holistic approach to the effects of Covid responses, such as vaccination rates, as well as lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and mask mandates.
“Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.”
All-cause mortality is a more holistic snapshot than focusing merely on Covid excess mortality. This is because it helps us assess if people are dying from the impact of Covid response policies, such as increased suicide rates, missing vital health screenings, and other public health tradeoffs.
What we find from an examination of the evidence provided by the CDC itself is that the vaccines are not lowering excess mortality rates; particularly, the average percentages of excess mortality in each reporting period year-over-year.
The CDC’s website shows the excess mortality from 2018 to present (but the expected mean is based on 6 years of data, the CDC notes). The excess mortality for each weekly reporting period can be seen below.
As you can see, from January 2021 to present, there was a peak at around the time of President Biden’s inauguration on January 20, followed by a decline in the weekly excess mortality figures, then a second wave that came with a Delta variant spike.
While there is no option available to directly compare the year-over-year weekly rates as a percentage, you can download the raw data and sort the weekly reports to find these figures.
The average weekly excess mortality rate, expressed as a percentage in 2020: 15.65% above the mean. In 2021, that figure has been 16.31% above the mean.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also provides the aggregate excess mortality rates. The OECD shows that the United States had Excess Deaths (% Change from Average) as -0.3% in 2020. It is 44.1% thus far in 2021.
Interestingly, one can find the excess mortality rates for other countries, provided by the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Let’s sample a few nations by year for Excess Deaths (% Change from Average):
- Australia: 0.5% (2020). 4.6% (2021)
- Austria: -10.8% (2020). 8.4% (2021)
- Iceland: 24.5% (2020). -1.7 (2021).
- Germany: -1.8% (2020). 29.2 (2021).
- Canada: 2% (2020). 9.9% (2021).
Let’s put under the microscope nations that are renowned for opposing mandatory mask policies:
- Sweden: -7.8% (2020). 16.7% (2021).
- Denmark: -0.4% (2020). 10%. (2021).
- Norway: -6.8% (2020). -10.3% (2021).
There is a possibility that 2021 ends up as worse than 2020 in terms of all-cause excess mortality rates for many nations, regardless of the vaccines.